FLA Politics - Floirda Politics

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Tally — Tue, 08 Jun 2010 17:37:10 GMT

NYP: Why Crist Is 'Done'

Tally — Mon, 03 May 2010 00:14:53 GMT

This article by Rich Lowry of the New York Post is great writing:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist is the saddest of political spectacles -- an opportunist running out of opportunities.
His relentless rise through Florida politics -- from state senator to education commissioner to attorney general to the governorship he wants to leave for the US Senate -- petered out in the Republican primary, with conservative upstart Marco Rubio drubbing him by a roughly 2-1 margin in the polls.
Crist could have bowed out gracefully, except it would have required entirely too much grace. He has declared himself an independent and will fight a three-way race against Rubio and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek in the fall. Along with fellow GOP apostate Arlen Specter, Crist is waging the revolt of the principleless. In a year of conviction politics, he seeks to forge a glorious cause out of his sheer impatience for another promotion.

2008 v. 2010

Tally — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 18:53:18 GMT

WaPo's The Fix has an interesting piece suggesting that if Dems want to win in 2010 they need to do more to re-inspire the young people who worked in the 2008 campaign.

I think Kendrick Meek is in a good position to do that. But other candidates need to start making that calculus part of their campaign.

Here's a slogan for you:

Don't just study history, MAKE IT!

Atwater and Redistricting Reform

Tally — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 20:58:55 GMT

When I was looking at The NY Times on-line this morning I was presented a good example of targeted advertising.

The ad is paid for by Fair Districts Florida and shows their political astuteness.

They know that Atwater, who is running state wide for Chief Financial Officer, is the weak link in the chain of heavy handed Republican leaders in the legislature.

He's already created a number of enemies with the SB6 debacle. Does he really want to give his opponent, Loranne Ausley, something else to use in ads against him?

Not to mention that it would be a great issue for Gov. Crist to use in an independent run for the US Senate.

But, some people are slow learners. We'll see what happens next week.

BTW, the ad takes you to this page on the FDF website which lists several newspaper articles condemning the cynical move.

You can go there if you'd like to donate. You can contact Atwater himself at:

atwater.jeff.web@flsenate.gov

(850) 487-5100 or 1-866-757-1902 statewide

Gov. Crist and "The Rovian Campaign"

Tally — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 19:06:07 GMT

I was reading Mark Halperin's review of Karl Rove's bestseller "Courage and Consequence" when I came across this:

Students of practical politics should grab a highlighter and some Post-it notes when reading Chapter 4, entitled "What Is a Rovian Campaign?" Even if one disagrees with Rove's politics (especially if one disagrees with Rove's politics), there are some valuable nuggets about how to run winning campaigns. The most vital rule, Rove says, is often violated: "A campaign must first be centered on big ideas that reflect the candidate's philosophy and views and that are perceived by voters as important and relevant." (emphasis added)

I've been trying to push this concept here in Florida for a couple of years, but getting Democrats to pay attention to it is like trying to get Unitarians to be more spiritual. They both would rather just argue about intellectual pursuits rather then deal with messy emotions.

But Republicans like Rove have long understood that a successful campaign is about marketing, which deals direcetly with emotions, not position papers.

The political punditry here in Florida is ready to dismiss Crist's possible run as an independent. But it is this concept of the "big idea" that makes such a run potentially viable.

Crist's mantra has always been: Government should serve the people, not special interests.

When Crist makes his announcement speech he will certainly emphasize this point, saying his veto of "leadership funds" and the teacher tenure bill (SB6) were examples of him putting this philosophy into practice.

I have already posted on how Crist can cheaply continue campaigning on this big idea by calling a special session to address campaign finance reform.

And if the Republican leadership in the legislature continue to cluelessly overreach with their bogus redistricting reform proposed constitutional amendment then they would give Gov. Crist another excellent club with which to beat them over the head.

There are two other Rovian principles that would work to Crist's advantage in a three way race.

The first is to take your opponent's strong point and make it a negative. Rubio's major asset is his personal story of coming from working class immigrants. But if Crist takes up the issue of redistricting reform, imagine how it is going to look for Rubio to have to defend the nonsense the legislature is proposing.

Purportedly, the Republican amendment's purpose is to "protect" minority districts. (This is actually done by Federal law and the reforms Fair Districts Florida have proposed acknowledge this).

So, you're going to have a debate scene where Crist is asking Rubio, "Explain to me again why this protection is necessary when the state voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and I'm sitting here as the underdog with two opponents who you are telling me need protection."

He can then continue, "I hope you are not saying that white people won't vote for minorities. Don't you think it's time we moved past identity politics?"

That's certainly a scenario I look forward to. It's important to remember that the debates will be three way affairs with Crist and Meek ganging up on Rubio.

The other Rovian point is to take your own weakness and turn it into a plus. Again, as soon as Crist makes the jump and embraces the "big idea", it becomes a piece of cake to do.

I don't need to tell you what Crist's supposed negative is. Here's what he'll say during his announcement:

Much has been made of my embrace of President Obma. You know what? The President ran a campaign whose main ideas were exemplified in the two words Hope and Change.
Well guess what. Even though this might offend Rush Limbaugh and Glen Beck, I DO embrace Hope and Change. I am forever optimistic in serving the great people of the State of Florida.

Can he win? I have no idea. If he keeps the polls to a statistical three way tie up to election day he might have a chance.

But, certainly, the "big idea" is his only hope.

Meek on CNN

Tally — Fri, 23 Apr 2010 15:38:08 GMT

The long campaign has given Rep. Meek a lot of time to improve his interview skills, as demonstrated by this video. Still six months to go, lots can happen.

Thomas Talks Tally

Tally — Wed, 21 Apr 2010 20:50:37 GMT

Mike Thomas has a column which repeats a lot of what I wrote in High Noon For Charlie. His is called Charlie Will Take Republicans Down With Him, which, of course, was my point.

He also says Gov. Crist should call for a special session on campaign finance reform as a free way to campaign. This is a meme that we really need to push.

There are a couple of things of his that I like that I didn't mention:

Crist argues he left the Party because the Party of Reagan grew enamored of the perks of power and lost touch with the people. It became the Party of special interests and entitlements. This damages Bill McCollum and other Republicans running for office as the Dems point to Charlie as evidence that Republicans have become corrupt from too many years in control.

He knows that in the U.S. Senate, the bottom line is the vote count. And so if Charlie wins, the Republicans up there will take him back in the fold, as the Dems did Joe Lieberman.

He's got a point with that last one.

And Mary Ellen Klas has the image that explains why a special session would be so helpful for Charlie: Has Crist Become The Lame Duck on Steroids?

Yes, he has, which again, was my point.

Don't you just love it? Kos even referred to Thomas' column as political porn. That about says it all.

Shakespeare Charlie

Tally — Sat, 17 Apr 2010 22:45:38 GMT

Surely we are watching a remarkable tragedy in the demise of Charlie Crist's political future.

A tragedy occurs when the protagonist is culpable in his own downfall due to some character flaw.

Sid Dinerstein, Republican chairman of Palm Beach County expresses it well:

Crist has great political skills. But the real tragedy of Charlie Crist is that, when the political skills are no longer enough, you have nothing else.

But, Republcans need to remember that in a tragedy what often happens is that the hero ends up taking everyone else with him and the stage is strewn with corpses when the curtain falls.

It is clear from the past few days that Charlie enjoys the limelight of being the hero who saves the day. Everyone is saying that one of the reason he'll switch is because he will continue to draw national buzz.

But there is another way he can draw buzz and continue being a hero. And it doesn't require him to run as an independent.

Imagine what will happen if he decides to call a special session in order to get the legislature to pass a campaign finance reform bill.

Gary Fineout has a fine article on how Sec. of State Kurt Browning wants lawmakers to clarify the situation:

Browning's office has yet to issue a formal opinion on how to deal with these 527 organizations heading into this year's election season.
Last August Tallahassee attorney Mark Herron asked that state Division of Elections tell him how election law would work after the federal court ruling.
"The reason we haven't released it is because of the legislative session,'' said Browning.

In a big election year there's no way the legislature wants to stay in Tallahassee any longer than it has to. But Crist with his veto pen can pretty much force them to come up with whatever he requires.

He might decide this would be an important legacy to his time as governor.

And it sure would create some buzz. I can see the headlines now.

CRIST GOES NUCLEAR ON REPUBLICANS!

SB6 Poll

Tally — Thu, 15 Apr 2010 15:21:13 GMT

From the Republican leaning news aggregator Sayfiew Review we get this poll.

Does anyone doubt there will be a veto?

RPOF and the Liberal Media

Tally — Thu, 15 Apr 2010 14:59:20 GMT

This is why John Thrasher thinks the Liberal Media is the enemy.

Great job, Marc.

I've been staying away from the legislature lately because they kind of make me nauseated, but I'll be going over tomorrow to see what trick Sen. Mikey will be playing with his new redistricting amendment.

I'll be putting Alka-Seltzer on the shopping list too.

Dan Discovers Video [UPDATED]

Tally — Sat, 10 Apr 2010 16:25:29 GMT

Just noticed that Dan Gelber is now sending out video updates on the legislative session.

I think this and the previous one are a bit too long, but it is good to see a Dem state politician utilizing this technique.

I wonder if this helped him outmatch Aronberg in the fundraising department last quarter ($325K to $260K).

[UPDATE] Turns out that Dan inflated his number with in-kind contributions! How cheesy is that. {sigh}. That's two quarters in a row that Aronberg has beaten him. Maybe it's time for Dan to do another "good for the party" withdrawal.

Also, it's interesting to learn that Gov. Crist vetos bills because Dan tells him to. That could come in handy if Charlie ever wins another election.

Palin-Grayson Ticket For 2016?

Tally — Sun, 28 Mar 2010 18:27:40 GMT

Clearly, Al Franken is getting competition on the comedy-politician front.

Bill McCollum's Passion

Tally — Wed, 24 Mar 2010 22:19:15 GMT

It's always interesting to see what inspires a person to take extraordinary measures.

Bill McCollum's time in the House of Representatives is remembered for his participation in the impeachment of Bill Clinton.

In the echo chamber of the right wing noise machine that seemed like a no-brainer. But it proved to be out of touch with the mood of the nation.

His latest tilting at the Obamacare windmill will end in a similar fashion.

Sure, it's great in a Republican primary, but how does it look to independent voters, the ones who are actually going to decide who our next governor is?

Same as the impeachment. Bill comes across as a tight-assed church deacon trying his damndest to squash anything positive out of our political life.

Grandstand all you want Bill.

The election of 2010 is going to turn on the economy, and let's not forget who's been in charge in Florida for over a decade.

Not to mention that in hard times voters are more likely to turn to a woman politician because they consider her more trustworthy.

Sure, it will be close. But the ultimate outcome has never been in doubt.

Change For Change

Tally — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 20:41:02 GMT

What do you say we take some of that good feeling about getting Health Care Reform finally passed and put it to work.

The Meek campaign sent around the following from former President Bill Clinton:

We need [Kendrick Meek] working with President Obama in the Senate on the toughest issues: from creating good jobs to providing more affordable health care to combating global warming.
Republican infighting has given him an opportunity to win that is better than ever, but fundraising numbers from this first quarter will show the pundits whether Kendrick can take advantage of it.
I promised to get 1,000 donors before the end-of-quarter deadline to prove Kendrick's strength. This is so important to our future.
Please help me keep my word - contribute today.

Let me tell you how Kendrick is going to win.
He's going to build a massive grassroots army to share with every single voter his real ideas for change - not the same old scare tactics.
Meanwhile, the Republican primary will be so divisive and so expensive that Kendrick's campaign will be able to frame this election on our terms:
Do we want to put our country back together and move forward or go back to the bad old days and the bad old ways that got us into all this trouble?

The button in the pic isn't live, so don't try clicking it. If you do want to donate, (even $5), here's the link to the website.

It's time we started the pushback against the Republican fear mongerers.

Boogie Mike

Tally — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 14:14:17 GMT

At the Capital Press Corps Skit Shannon Colavecchio said that Sen. Mike's hair reminded her of Mark Wahlberg who starred in the movie Boogie Nights.

You can decide for yourselves.

Haridopolos On Health Care

Tally — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 13:57:09 GMT

I think this is an effective video and an example of how easy it is to do web ads.

The issue of cost containment is legitimate. But Sen. Mike mentions how much Medicaid has increased since he joined the legislature.

Dude, you joined in 2001 when Republicans controlled both houses of Congress and the presidency.

IF IT'S SO CRITICAL WHY DIDN'T YOU FIX IT THEN???

Because Republicans are the "Cut Taxes For The Rich and Still Spend" party.

Kos Discovers Meek!

Tally — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 23:02:06 GMT

Finally!

For the past year, I've been arguing that Crist's collapse in the GOP primary was inevitable, that his only path to the Senate was by switching parties and becoming a Democrat. Well, that window of opportunity has closed.
Senate General Election
Charlie Crist (R) 45 (50)
Kendrick Meek (D) 36 (33)

Marco Rubio (R) 41 (38)
Kendrick Meek (D) 40 (30)
I've been nothing but dismissive of Meek. But the numbers certainly suggest this could be competitive. And it's because of this:
Favorable/Unfavorable/No opinion
Charlie Crist 44/45/11 (59/23/9)
Marco Rubio 29/36/35 (21/22/57)
Kendrick Meek 25/18/57 (23/9/68)
Meek is still invisible. But Rubio is now well into net-negative territory. And particularly disturbing for him, that fall has come from independents, going from 18/21/61 last November, to 26/38/36.
Independents aren't liking what they see from him. It would be nice if Meek improved on his numbers, but at this point, he's the only candidate left with a net-positive favorability rating. (Ephasis Added)

Hot Air v. Horndog

Tally — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 22:48:58 GMT

The Sometimes Annual 55th Florida Capital Press Corps Skit was a lot of fun Monday night.

You can watch a short video clip from Bay News 9 showing television reporter Troy Kinsey doing his Charlie Crist imitation. (They don't seem to allow embeds, sorry.)

Crist called Kinsey "The Tina Fey of Tallahassee" as part of his talk. He also showed a video presenting three alternatives to the dreaded "Obama Hug" that his staff had come up with to counter its effect.

My title refers to two separate jokes concerning the gentlemen engaged in the Democratic primary for Attorney General.

The first joke was that when there was a need for hot air in the capital all you needed to do was attend a speech by Dan Gelber to get a refill.

The second was that historically Democratic politicians went on a Quail Hunt to build relationships with other politicians. But Dave Aronberg was trying something new, a Tail Hunt that involved visiting the back doors of all the sororities in town.

The choice is yours Florida!

Sink And Redistricting

Tally — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 21:13:18 GMT

Huffpost has an article about how the Democratic Legislative Campain Committee is going to be spending money to insure certain state legislatures remain Democratic so that they will be in charge of redistricting after the census.

Other wise a Republican legislature could redistict them out of several seats in Congress.

Some of this money should go to Alex Sink's campaign since she can veto Florida's redistricting map for Congress if she finds it egregiously gerrymandered.

If Grayson, Kosmas and Klein are able to hold on to their seats in 2010, they will surely be redistricted out of them in 2012 unless a Democratic governor can stop it.

Send them an application, CFO Sink!

How Slimy Is Jeff Atwater?

Tally — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 20:43:33 GMT

After comparing Jeff Atwater's attitude toward oil drilling off our beaches and the Cannon/Haridopolos/Thrasher position I was taken in by the moderating influence of running for statewide office.

I mean, maybe the guy's not so bad. Reasonable even.

But then I read a hair-raising article by Jim Ash in my local paper.

The title was Healthy Families is worth saving, panel told, and described former speaker Dan Webster's testimony before a Senate panel:

The $28 million, voluntary program served 12,930 families at a cost of a little more than $1,671per child. It costs the state more than $64,000 a year to care for an abused or neglected child. A year after completing the program, 98 percent of the kids are free from abuse and neglect, the study showed.
Those are core Republican principles at work, Webster said.
"Talk about government intrusion. That happens when a child is abused or neglected and the state comes in and takes them away," Webster said. "Is this less government? Yes it is. Does this program lower taxes? Yes it does. Does it empower the family? Absolutely."

Well, that's hopeful I said to myself. But then I read further.

The fate of Healthy Families, and other social-service programs on the Senate chopping block, rests largely with how Atwater decides to allocate $1 billion in federal stimulus dollars that are expected to flow to Florida soon.
Last week, [Committee Chair Durell] Peaden wrote a letter to Atwater asking him to keep that windfall in social service programs. Atwater is running for chief financial officer and has made no secret of his plans to spend much of the money elsewhere.
He wants to use at least some of it to reverse the $500 million in increased motor vehicle fees that lawmakers approved last spring. He also wants to reinstate a diminished back-to-school sales tax holiday.
Atwater also wants to grant a 1 percent cut in the state's 5.5 percent corporate tax rate, a move that could cost $57 million.
Peaden's House counterpart, Rep. Denise Grimsley, R-Lake Placid, was surprised at the Senate's initial decision on Healthy Families.
"Why would they cut that?" she said. (Emphasis Added)

So just what are Jeff Atwater's priorities? What kind of person sacrifices vulnerable CHILDREN for his own political gain?

This is shameful.

If he goes through with this travesty then I hope Loranne Ausley beats him over the head with his "Republican Family Values" hypocrisy in their contest for Chief Financial Officer.