Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: "Never very popular, Martinez stunned his state by deciding to step down after just one term, creating a rare open seat opportunity in this mega-state."The pent-up ambitions of dozens of politicians are on display. Nonetheless, one politician had the ability to shut down the contest on the GOP side, and also become the instant November favorite: former Gov. Jeb Bush.
The Sunshine State is one of the few where it is still possible for a Bush to be elected to a top spot because Jeb Bush carved out his own legacy in eight years as Governor (1999-2007), and voters understand the difference between Jeb and George. But after sending signals that he might run, Jeb Bush said no in early January. To which we say: Run, "Jeb!", run! Jebbie is yesterday's news, and with his failed policies coming home to roost (on Charlie's lap), Saint "Jeb!" ain't near as popular as the outside-the-state pundits and Bushco dead enders think he is. "Jeb!" is yesterdays news, and bad news at that.
Indeed, many of us in the library card crowd are intrigued at the thought of Jebbie running - this would give the Dems the opportunity to put his failed "legacy" on the table, and drive a stake through his rotten political heart.
Florida's sycophantic media, forever clinging to the coat tails of the Bush clan - and in their never rending hope to for once ride on the big bus with the real journalists - would love to see Jebbie get in the game, if not in this race, sumthin' even bigger - IYKWIMAITUD.
So, anything Jebbie does - the Senate thing or whatever - is sure to be accompanied by extensive positive media. Prepare to be inundated with stories about how Jebbie uses twitter and is a "policy wonk".
Sabato continues:Republicans would love to get popular Gov. Charlie Crist to forgo a second term as chief executive and run for the Senate instead. Like Bush would have, Crist would very likely win the seat. On the other hand, the open Senate seat is good news for Crist in another way: Most ambitious Democrats are going to make a beeline for an open Senate seat rather than challenging an incumbent Governor. Crist has sent contradictory signals about his intentions, and the GOP field will be essentially frozen until he decides whether he'd rather continue being Governor or prefers the Senate seat. "At one time, the presumed Democratic frontrunner was state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, but she has now removed her name from consideration and plans to run again for her post."In her stead, a cluster of U.S. House members is now hungrily eyeing the Senate seat, including Kathy Castor, Kendrick Meek, and Ron Klein. State Sen. Dan Gelber, an early Obama supporter, is also in the hunt, as is Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio. "For the Republicans, if Crist joins Bush in opting out of the Senate contest, the GOP will have exhausted the list of near-sure winners. The GOP has to find a good candidate and will have just a 50-50 shot at holding the seat."It isn't immediately obvious which second-tier Republicans will launch a candidacy but a couple of GOP congressmen are making noises ... If Crist runs, this is LEANS REPUBLICAN HOLD. Otherwise, it's a TOSS-UP. Much more here: "SENATE 2010: A THREE-PEAT FOR DEMOCRATS OR COMEBACK FOR THE GOP?".
Don't hold your breath - Charlie's running. |
