While the 2008 presidential election was certainly historical and indicative of future demographic trends, it is important for Democrats to not be overly sanguine about the hopelessness of Republican prospects. The likely US Senate candidacy of former governor Jeb Bush here in Florida could be a powerful psychological boost to the beleaguered party.
I have already made clear that Democrats here could go from winning the presidential election in Florida in 2008 to losing all five statewide contests in 2010, along with the defeat of desperately needed redistricting reform. The impetus to this disaster occurring would be if both Jeb Bush and the state's Democratic Chief Financial Officer, Alex Sink, decide to run for the US Senate seat being vacated by Bush loyalist Mel Martinez.
Even though Sink is competent and a worthy candidate, she can't repeat Obama's feat due to an inability to turn out the Black vote, and resigning her CFO seat would allow that office to also be picked up by Republicans. Jeb's name recognition and enormous fund raising capabilities would do the trick for him.
Such a sweep would give the Republican Party an enormous boost in its attempt at a comeback. A recent Washington Times piece titled "Jeb Bush Senate Bid a GOP Remedy?" provides the same analysis:
As former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush ponders a campaign for the seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez, the decision comes down to how best to rehabilitate the Bush brand as well as the Republican party, possibly laying the groundwork for a future presidential campaign.
[Snip]
Mr. Bush, a two-term Republican governor who left office in January 2007 with a nearly 60-percent approval rating, has long been viewed as a potential candidate for the White House despite his brother's dismal approval ratings. However, insiders said a Senate bid would be driven first by Mr. Bush's desire to lead Republicans back from the electoral precipice.
[Snip]
Washington lobbyist Al Cardenas, a friend of Mr. Bush's and former chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, said the former governor has been increasingly frustrated by his party's lack of fiscal discipline, ethical gaps and poor messaging.
This Democratic debacle would be exacerbated by the changes in congress and the electoral college resulting from the 2010 census. Here's how present projections break down(pdf) in congressional seats (and votes) gained and lost.
Texas +4
Arizona +2
Florida +1
Georgia +1
Nevada +1
North Carolina +1
Oregon +1
South Carolina +1
Utah +1
California -1
Illinois -1
Iowa -1
Louisiana -1
Massachusetts -1
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1
Missouri -1
New Jersey -1
Pennsylvania -1
New York -1
Ohio -2
we have reason to be optimistic for the 2012 election regardless of what happens in the 2010 mid-term elections if the party can make even the slightest gains in the Hispanic vote
One of the key things to know about Jeb Bush is that he speaks fluent Spanish and is married to a woman born in Mexico.
Here in Florida, the outcome of the defeat of redistricting reform is that the Republican dominated legislature will further gerrymander congressional districts to take back the three seats lost in the last two election cycles in the same way that former congresswoman Karen Thurman's seat was redrawn out from under her after the 2000 census.
This means that when the 2012 elections are over, the present ratio of Dem/Rep congressional seats of 10/15 will become 7/19. That is, with the new district, the Republicans will pick up a swing of seven seats in the House just from Florida.
This will be seen as an enormous victory for Jeb and will cement his position as leader of the party. All he has to do is sit out the 2012 presidential race and let the wingnut Palin faction blow up and then continue to sell himself as the true conservative who can get the party back in a winning mode as evidenced by what he accomplished in Florida.
The point of this piece is to impress on Democrats nationwide that a Jeb Bush candidacy in Florida in 2010 needs to be seen as a critical priority. It is highly unlikely that the coalition Obama put together to win here in 2008 can be repeated by any candidate who cannot inspire the same level of turnout in the Black community. One has only to look at what happened in the Georgia Senate runoff to see the truth in that.
In other words, Obama only turned Florida Blue when it voted for him.
If a successful campaign can be mounted to defeat Jeb if he decides to run, then that would definitely drive a stake thru the heart of the right wing beast. But if Jeb is allowed to win here in Florida, the conservative ideology he embodies will continue to damage our national body politic for years to come.
The campaign web sites of select candidates; click on "FB" to check them out on FaceBook, "T" to follow them on twitter, and "$" to donate. These are not paid ads.
- At "After All, He Is Black", we look at the inability of Florida "conservatives" to deal with racial issues.
- "Take this job ..." is a compendium of some of the things Florida employers are permitted to do to their employees.
Please leave comments or e-mail us with additional material for these projects.
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