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Compromise or Revote?

by: Tally

Wed Mar 12, 2008 at 13:27:12 PM EDT


Sunday I posted a short diary saying that there were good reasons for doing a revote and good reasons for not doing one.

A news article in Monday’s Orlando Sentinel provided both.

More below.

Tally :: Compromise or Revote?

First, "For" by Dan Gelber:

A record 1.7 million Democrats voted [in the January 29 primary]. But Gelber said a mail-in ballot could be so easy that 2.5 million Democrats -- of the 4.2 million active party members -- likely would vote.
Second, "Against" by Debbie Dubya (sorry, I just love that name):
But the mail-in idea has its detractors. Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schulz, D-Weston, who appeared on Fox News Sunday, said the state had never conducted a mail-in election and that with a presidential nomination at stake this is no time to experiment. Poor voters who are more transient might lose the chance to vote if their ballot didn't get to them. A mail-in vote paid for by donations also raises worries about fraud if the state does not verify voters' signatures and creates the appearance of a conflict of interest if special interests pay for it, she added.

Was that "appeared on Fox News"? Eewww!

However, Debbie Dubya then went on to say:

Florida Democrats are looking at other ideas such as having some of the state's delegates determined by the Jan. 29 vote and others by some other formula, such as who won the most popular votes or delegates nationally.

To show you how Fair and Balanced I am, I will admit that this is a good compromise solution. But, let’s look at the actual numbers. 

If you go to the Florida Democratic Party website you will find that their webmaster has provided all of the needed information. I will summarize here:

                                                 Table of Delegates 
 ClintonObamaEdwardsTotal 
District674112120 
At-Large2416141 
PLEO1410024 
UAO3003 
Supers*167023 
Totals1247413211C+50
      
                                                        Compromise 
District674112120 
Remainder by Popular Vote (w/o FL or Mich)4546   
Totals11287  C+25

 

The District delegates were elected at caucuses on March 1. The slots were previously apportioned to the candidates based on the January 29th primary. Caucus goers were only determining which actual person went into which predetermined slot.

The At Large delegates, Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEO) delegates, and Unpledged Add On (UAO) delegates will be chosen by the state party executive committee. Of the super delegates (called "automatic" delegates on the No-We-Don’t-Have-a-Clinton-Bias party website), 12 are presently committed (8 Clinton, 4 Obama) and 11 are presently "uncommitted". I arbitrarily allotted the uncommitted on an 8-3 basis in favor of Clinton. I also put the UAO delegates in the Clinton column, just for argument’s sake.

(* The party website shows 22 "automatic" delegates but I’m using 23. The reason is because of this guy. The state party didn’t know he existed until unearthed by the media. But this site still lists him as one of our superdelegates, even though he hasn’t lived in Florida for years. He claims he is too old to go to the convention, but since he has declared his support for Hillary, I figured I better include him, just in case somebody decides to buy him a ticket to Denver.)

As is shown by the chart, if the delegation was seated as is, then Clinton would pick up around a 50 delegate swing (not counting the Edwards delegates). I’ll let you play with their hypothetical apportionment.

Using a format based on the one mentioned by Debbie Dubya, we would let the District delegates stand as they are. They were all chosen by their community and apportioned by the state’s voters. If they are seated then the national party can officially state that the Democratic voters of Florida were not disenfranchised.

Then the remaining party-chosen and super delegate group would be apportioned based on the popular vote. Assuming it holds to present percentages, they would be almost evenly split, Clinton 45 and Obama 46.

When we total it all up, Clinton gets a net 25 delegate swing. I think the Obama camp could live with that.

Now, one obvious difficulty of this compromise is that it is that you can't assign pledged delegate status to superdelegates. So, to make it work, you'd have to get them all to declare themselves first and then apportion the other non-district delegates accordingly. Or, you could just make the same assumptions I did here and apportion according to that. We wouldn't be talking about a big swing either way.

Now, many feel that doing a primary would be a good opportunity for party building. That’s true, but given the legal and logistical difficulties of another primary, it might be better to wait.

Anyway, those of us who are Obama supporters will be getting trained by the well organized Obama field operation this summer whether or not there is a primary. The campaign will be quite ready to get out the vote come November.

We’ll leave meeting with the PACs to Debbie Dubya.

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