| The mid-term elections, since the President's historic win last year, occur in 2010. As typical of most elections, some surprises occurred in 2008--notably, Democrats elected from districts where the voters also preferred Barack Obama's opponent, Senator John McCain (R., AZ). Lumping first and second term members together, the total number falling in this category is approximately 50 members of the U.S. House of Representatives. Now the question is 'who brought them to the dance?' Said differently, one of the following probably apply to the 50: 1. They won their seats based upon their original conservative and perceived independent campaigns, and they created a comfortable distance from the Obama Campaign. 2. Their opponents were vulnerable and probably too tied to the unpopular President George Bush. However, their electorate supported the Republican nominee, thinking Senator McCain was sufficiently different from President Bush. 3. These districts had unusually discriminating voters. What ever the reason, these 50 folks have problems now, and they are creating additional problems for their Democratic President. The Republicans are obviously targeting them, and the Administration cannot necessarily count on them on make or break votes on health care, energy and financial services reform, among many others. Also, keep in mind, historically the majority party usually loses seats in a mid-term election like this. The outcome of these 50 House races may very well dictate the success or failure of this historic President's first term. |
