| First I need to point out that the midterm elections of 2010 here in Florida will be like 2006, not 2008. Forget national politics--that's not what statewide races are about.
In 2006 the results in statewide elections went from 60% of the vote going for the Democrat Bill Nelson for US Senate to 57% of the vote going for the Republican Charles Bronson in the Commissioner of Agriculture race. In a statewide race it is always that 20% swing middle that you direct your ads to.
This is not a group of people who are going to make a decision based on ten-point plans or white papers. The appeal has to be much more fundamental and direct.
The best example of what wins is Democrat Alex Sink's 2006 campaign for Chief Financial Officer (she's running for governor this time around and is expected to win against Mr. Dull aka Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum).
Her commercials back then (which are no longer available on YouTube unfortunately) showed glassy-eyed state legislators going up to an ATM to withdraw YOUR TAX MONEY to spend on frivolous things. Then Alex came on with her smile and folksy down-home twang and said she'd stop this as CFO.
The point I want to make is that the ad was humorous and it attacked state legislators. A state candidate cannot go wrong criticizing the excesses of our representatives, especially when it is done in a funny, entertaining way.
So, let's say I was working on Dan Gelber's race for Attorney General. What kind of commercial would I want to use to attract that 20% swing vote?
One of the basic rules of campaigning is to look at your candidate's weak point and find a way to make it a positive. Dan's is that he's a little known "South Florida" (read Jewish) politician in a diverse state.
But, right now in pop culture there is an excellent opportunity to exploit Dan's heritage. I'm talking about Quentin Tarantino's Jewish revenge fantasy movie, The Inglourious Basterds.
Why not make a commercial employing imagery from the movie?
Let's picture a legislator sitting at a table with stacks of money on it. In front of the table are a line of fancily dressed people. As each comes to the table the legislator gives them a couple of handsful of cash and they leave smiling.
A voice over says something like, "Tallahassee politicians are all too eager to give away your tax money to their fat cat buddies. Isn't there any way to stop their wasteful spending?"
Cut to a shot of Dan marching down a hallway with a baseball bat in hand and a purposeful look on his face. The line of fat cats see him coming and scatter. Dan comes up to the table and knocks it away with a swing of the bat.
The legislator falls out of his seat and ends up on his knees looking up at Dan with a frightened look on his face. Then there's a shot from the legislator's point of view with Dan slowly bringing the bat back over his shoulder, ready to swing.
Next we see a big cartoon *** P O W *** and then a cut to Dan in an office smiling. He looks in the camera and says, "Sometimes, the only way to get things changed in Tallahassee is to knock a few heads. As your Attorney General, I promise to work hard to get Florida's government working for you and not just the special interests."
That's it.
An ad like that would instantly create an effective identity for Dan. Every time he gave a stump speech he could bring a baseball bat with him and shake it in the air while the crowd cheered.
Since it's provocative he would get the added benefit of local news stations doing pieces about it and showing it for free. If anyone asked him to apologize he could pull a Grayson and say he was sorry the legislature was run by unethical folks like Ray Sansom and that the Republicans refuse to change the budgeting process.
What makes this particular ad work is that it fits Dan's actual persona and his record as a member of the legislature fighting for openness. He's always had a bit of that Old Testament prophet righteousness about him which reinforces the imagery used.
The same ad wouldn't work for his Democratic primary opponent, Dave Aronberg, since he cultivates more of a "lover not a fighter" type of persona. There wouldn't be any resonance in the imagery. This is not to say that Aronberg's campaign couldn't come up with something equivalent (think Ashton Kutcher), just that this particular approach wouldn't be appropriate.
A possible downside to this ad is appearing angry and turning off women voters. In the last scene of the ad it's important for the candidate to be calm and smiling. The camera could also pull back at the close and show that he had his wife and kids with him.
Images like that would soften the message and keep it from being too negative.
If Democrats are going to win the statewide races here in Florida in 2010 they need to come up with more scenarios like this so they can effectively market themselves to that all-important 20% swing vote.
As you can see, it's not that hard to do. It just takes a little creativity and the right approach.
As I always like to say, have fun while saving the world.
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