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Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 19:13:57 PM EST
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Cross-posted at the new FriedGator.com
So there is a new poll out by Strategic Vision in the red hot race for Florida Senate. With the election 22 months away this poll means very little -- but that is not going to stop wild speculation and an attempt to read the tea leaves:
1) Kendrick Meek seems to be the weakest of the field in the General Election. Despite being one of the most well known and his ability to get heavyweights like President Clinton, Chris Korge, Steve Hildebrand, Ana Cruz, and I hear Obama consultant Blue State Digital -- Meek is the weakest of the Democrats against all of the Republican challengers. In every match up against Republicans, he is trailing by 3% to 14% behind the other Democrats but two (Dan Gelber and he trail Connie Mack by the same percentage, and Gelber loses to Rubio by a bit more).
This means Meek has a real ceiling with those that know him -- just look at the Bense/Meek match up where he trails Bense by 7% -- Gelber trials him by 3%, Klein beats him by 7%, and Iorio beats him by 8%. Meek has a hill to climb -- much more than I would have expected. And his 10% in the Democratic primary is not anything brag about either. He better hope the Big Dog is will to come back for him -- he's going to need it.
2) Pam Iorio is the strongest of all the Democrats and does pretty good in the primary. Pam Iorio beats every Republican but Charlie Crist in this poll. Her name recognition isn't higher than the other candidates, so this means she must pull voters from the I-4 cooridor away from the Republicans. And despite what the Buzz says -- she does pretty well in the primary considering she is within margin of error of Meek. This race is wide open, and it looks like Iorio should be seriously considering it.
3) Dan Gelber has room to grow, define himself, and win. While Dan Gelber's Democratic Primary percentage isn't great (4%) it is 3% higher than the last poll and once you see the general election he doesn't do too bad. Given his name recognition I would guess that he performs about at the level of "generic Democrat." While this doesn't show incredible support for his Senate run, it means that Gelber has the most opportunity to define himself and in a wide open race that will help a lot. He will have to tap into the internet and the grassroots to pull it off -- and he's off to a bit of a rocky start getting his message out (just find his Senate annoucement video on youtube). But with Meek getting ready to launch a new site, he's going to have to move fast to win the internet primary.
4) Charlie Crist for Senate gets more support than Charlie Crist for Governor. There is no question Charlie is popular, but one interesting fact from this poll -- he does better running for Senate than Governor. When polled about re-election as Governor against a generic Democrat Charlie is about 8 points lower than when polled against Dan Gelber in this poll. I think this makes it clear there might be more to "Charlie for Senate" than Carole wanting to be a hop, skip, and a jump away from the shops in Georgetown. If Charlie has seen the same polls and is looking at the budget deficits ahead -- it might just be easier to run for Senate.
5) Connie Mack IV is still the man to beat. Take Charlie out of the situation, and Connie Mack the IV is the man to beat. I don't expect this to last and I am sure most people think its Connie Mack the III, but its going to help him in the primary and he could end up staying the man to beat for a long time to come if Charlie opts out in May. Plus his Congresswoman wife from California used to be married to Sonny Bono -- so that should help with the older population.
So there you have it, my attempt to read the tea leaves, and more importantly notice a few things out of this poll others seem to have ignored. Looking forward to seeing some more polling on this race to make comparisons.
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| FriedGatorBlog :: Kendrick Meek ... weak in FL Senate race? Pam Iorio strong? And more ... |
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