Florida Politics
Since 2002
Florida political news, editorials and punditry ~ E-mail, FaceBook, and Twitter

Selected by Campaigns & Elections as one of only ten state blogs nationwide
"every political insider should be reading right now"


The only Florida blog listed on the Daily Kos and MyDD Blog Rolls

Named by the Washington Post as one of the nation's
"Best State Political Blogs"

Go to FLA netroots posts -
Go to FLA media "blog" posts -


Index -
How to join and use this blog -
Search the site; Our RSS Feed -
Select candidates -
Blog Florida Blue and other resources -
Campaign and party links -
About Press releases, ads and links -

Kendrick Meek ... weak in FL Senate race? Pam Iorio strong? And more ...

by: FriedGatorBlog

Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 19:13:57 PM EST


Cross-posted at the new FriedGator.com

So there is a new poll out by Strategic Vision in the red hot race for Florida Senate. With the election 22 months away this poll means very little -- but that is not going to stop wild speculation and an attempt to read the tea leaves:

Meek2b_CA0408-250.gif1) Kendrick Meek seems to be the weakest of the field in the General Election. Despite being one of the most well known and his ability to get heavyweights like President Clinton, Chris Korge, Steve Hildebrand, Ana Cruz, and I hear Obama consultant Blue State Digital -- Meek is the weakest of the Democrats against all of the Republican challengers. In every match up against Republicans, he is trailing by 3% to 14% behind the other Democrats but two (Dan Gelber and he trail Connie Mack by the same percentage, and Gelber loses to Rubio by a bit more).

This means Meek has a real ceiling with those that know him -- just look at the Bense/Meek match up where he trails Bense by 7% -- Gelber trials him by 3%, Klein beats him by 7%, and Iorio beats him by 8%. Meek has a hill to climb -- much more than I would have expected. And his 10% in the Democratic primary is not anything brag about either. He better hope the Big Dog is will to come back for him -- he's going to need it.

371268044_bf0e58cd7d.jpg2) Pam Iorio is the strongest of all the Democrats and does pretty good in the primary. Pam Iorio beats every Republican but Charlie Crist in this poll. Her name recognition isn't higher than the other candidates, so this means she must pull voters from the I-4 cooridor away from the Republicans. And despite what the Buzz says -- she does pretty well in the primary considering she is within margin of error of Meek. This race is wide open, and it looks like Iorio should be seriously considering it.


ot_275108_keel_flgov_7x.jpg3) Dan Gelber has room to grow, define himself, and win. While Dan Gelber's Democratic Primary percentage isn't great (4%) it is 3% higher than the last poll and once you see the general election he doesn't do too bad. Given his name recognition I would guess that he performs about at the level of "generic Democrat." While this doesn't show incredible support for his Senate run, it means that Gelber has the most opportunity to define himself and in a wide open race that will help a lot. He will have to tap into the internet and the grassroots to pull it off -- and he's off to a bit of a rocky start getting his message out (just find his Senate annoucement video on youtube). But with Meek getting ready to launch a new site, he's going to have to move fast to win the internet primary. 

0350.jpg4) Charlie Crist for Senate gets more support than Charlie Crist for Governor. There is no question Charlie is popular, but one interesting fact from this poll -- he does better running for Senate than Governor. When polled about re-election as Governor against a generic Democrat Charlie is about 8 points lower than when polled against Dan Gelber in this poll. I think this makes it clear there might be more to "Charlie for Senate" than Carole wanting to be a hop, skip, and a jump away from the shops in Georgetown. If Charlie has seen the same polls and is looking at the budget deficits ahead -- it might just be easier to run for Senate.   

mack-bono-married.JPG5) Connie Mack IV is still the man to beat. Take Charlie out of the situation, and Connie Mack the IV is the man to beat. I don't expect this to last and I am sure most people think its Connie Mack the III, but its going to help him in the primary and he could end up staying the man to beat for a long time to come if Charlie opts out in May. Plus his Congresswoman wife from California used to be married to Sonny Bono -- so that should help with the older population. 

So there you have it, my attempt to read the tea leaves, and more importantly notice a few things out of this poll others seem to have ignored. Looking forward to seeing some more polling on this race to make comparisons.
FriedGatorBlog :: Kendrick Meek ... weak in FL Senate race? Pam Iorio strong? And more ...
Tags: , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
Goodnes. What Can I Say? (0.00 / 0)
Sigh.

You should have stopped after the sentence "With the election 22 months away this poll means very little."

It is precisely this type of absolutely silly celebrity style horse race reporting I have been trying to move the Florida blogosphere away from.

The other thing I have been pushing is TRANSPARENCY in political advocacy. You can find me on Facebook by searching for Michael Tally Murphree.

On Daily Kos, some of the Frontpagers have started using their real names. They did this because they wanted to be taken seriously.

I want everyone who blogs here in Florida to think about that last statement. Do you want to be taken seriously? I sure as hell do.

When I went to the FriedGator blog I couldn't find any identification of the author(s).

You have a lot of interesting blog posts over at FriedGator. Why did you pick this particular one to post here? Why did you choose that particular title? Etc., etc.

If we know who you are we don't have to speculate about motives.

I do want to compliment you on the quality of the layout and the clever choice of photos to send subliminal messages. You obviously have talent.

Now, I can hear in my head my dear wife's influence telling me I should have complimented you first before I criticized you. (She herself would never say that to me. This is my own judgmentalism talking).

Don't you just hate it when everything you do is another personal growth opportunity?

Any way, take care. Have fun.


I posted it here with that title, (4.00 / 1)

because of you. With an entire diary section favoring one candidate over the other -- I thought it was time to balance things out a bit. I thought that was clear. I wanted your response. Which was all about me -- not about Kendrick meek, Dan Gelber, Pam Iorio, or even Connie Mack.

 As for being anonymous -- I have to be. Sometimes people write anonymously to keep from getting retribution from the restof their life. Sometimes people do it to get attention. Sometimes its both. I live in Florida -- but I don't work in the Florida political field. If that means you focus on who I am-- instead what I write, oh well, other people see past it. But I am just following in a long tradition of anonymous political wirting.

As for the Senate race, heres the deal: people are getting behind the person who polls worst in this race right now. 22 months out that could mean nothing -- but clearing the field for him is jst as dumb as counting him out. I think we should wait a bit before declaring Dan dead, Pam lame, Kevin too small, or Ron out of the race. We have some good Democrats in Florida -- Kendrick isn't the only one. Add to that I personally think he's a bad statewide candidate. That is why I wrote the piece.

I also wrote the piece to point out to the world Charlie is more vunerable than people think -- but no one seems to want to say that anonymous or not.



[ Parent ]
Thank you for your honesty. (0.00 / 0)
I appreciate that.

Many people would have said that Hillary Clinton was the stronger statewide candidate. But that was proved to be moot when Obama took the state.

We mustn't operate from fear. We need to believe that people can rise to the occasion as they did in the 2008 election.

It is our job as progressives to help that happen, not to pander to people's worst instincts.

I mean, are we supposed to support Blue Dog Allen Boyd against Al Lawson, or are we supposed to sign up for Al's campaign and work our butts off to make sure Boyd spends more time with his family?


[ Parent ]
No ... (4.00 / 1)

Were not supposed to assume that Lawson, who almost endorsed Crist is that much more Progressive than Boyd. Things are not always black and white as some people see them.

Were not supposed to try and force other people out of the race and paint people who are progressives as "Joe Leiberman" Is Kevin Burns not a progressive? Is Dan Gelber? Some people think Kendrick Meek isn't. We need to have a discussion as Democrats and not try and shut it down.

I am glad we had a primary in the Presidential race, and I agree we shouldn't operate form fear: and is why we should have a primary in the Florida Senate race too.

 



[ Parent ]
First we need to know what "Progressive" means. (0.00 / 0)
Dan just spoke at the Florida Mainstream Dems, a DLC style organization. Do you know what either organization stands for?

Have you read their defining documents? Do you agree with them?

I've posted what I think the tenets of The New Political Paradigm are.

Does either candidate support them by their actions? I doubt it.

I intend to discuss this in reference to Rep. Meek. Are you willing to discuss it in reference to St. Sen. Gelber?


[ Parent ]
I heard that Kendrick Meek (4.00 / 1)
was there too and spoke. So were leaders of DFA organizations, DECs, and tons of others. I heard it was a good meeting, wether you are moderate or liberal.

[ Parent ]
You know what? (0.00 / 0)
You're right, I'm being pissy. I apologize.

Hell, Pam Iorio will probably get in the race and beat them both.


Tally - On Transparency (0.00 / 0)
First off, I want to tell you how much I appreciate your activism and the passion that you display with each post.

However, I feel the need to respond to your call for transparency among bloggers. While I agree that posting under one's real name adds an extra aura of credibility, the way you present it is, imo, too black and white. So, allow me to provide some additional context to fill in the grey.

You say:

On Daily Kos, some of the Frontpagers have started using their real names. They did this because they wanted to be taken seriously.

That may be true, but it is also true that the Frontpagers are employees of Kos Media, LLC.  Working for a media entity as a writer with the protections that provides is not the same thing as a private citizen running a personal blog.

Daily Kos also provides an example as to why some choose to post using a screenname, rather than their real name. Take the case droogie, for example, who wrote something that miffed the Associated Press. The AP outed him at his place of work as a blogger, putting his very livelyhood in danger.

The lesson to be learned,is that even those of us who are "anonymous" can be tracked down. So, for those of you posting who have concerns over privacy, be careful about providing any personal info on your accounts. In fact, I'd recommend having a different screenname for what you post politically versus place you post just for fun.

That said, if you have the luxury of being able to post under your real name. Go for it. I applaud you.

Whether a person is named or unnamed doesn't make their words any more or any less valid -- but rather the quality of the content in their writing.


You are right.. (0.00 / 0)
Prior to my retirement I would not have had the luxury to do what I'm doing. In some cases in the past I was too strident about criticizing people about openness.

Also, if you write quality material then it will make some difference.

But, if people can use their real names, they should.

Openness is better. That's what Facebook is about. What really matters in the end is not blogging in our homes but meeting real people out in the world.

What wins elections is knocking on doors, not typing.

Now, if by typing you can inspire more people to knock on doors, go for it.

How about we all agree on "different strokes for different folks."

Have fun, good to hear from you.


Menu

Make an account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


Florida Netroots

Blogs that focus on Florida political issues.

(Back to the top)

- Fla. Progressive Coalition
- FPC Radio Schedule
- BlogWood 2.0
- Rantings from Florida
- Florida Netroots Blog
- Blast Off!
- Florida Kossacks
- Seminole Democrats
- Tampa Bay Blue
- Pushing Rope
- Smashed Frog
- Grassroots Brevard
- Change in Tallahassee
- The Campaign Manager
- Generation Miami
- Blue in Miami
- The Reid Report
- Bob McKnight's Blog
- Miami-Dade Dems
- Crowley Political Report
- Beach Peanuts
- Daniel Tilson
- Blue Broward

Florida Netroots Posts
Posts by citizen bloggers about Florida political issues.

(Back to the top or jump to media "blog" posts)

Campaigns and Parties
Links to political parties and campaigns. Please contact us about adding links. [Links are not endorsements]

(Back to the top, or jump to media posts or blog posts)

Party Links
- Florida Dems
- Florida GOP

Local Dem Party Links
- Alachua
- Broward
- Leon
- Marion
- Miami-Dade
- Orange
- Seminole
- Volusia County

Governor
- [TBD]

Cabinet
- Draper [Ag]

U.S. Senate
- [TBD]

Congress
- [TBD]

Florida Senate
- [TBD]

Special Elections
- [TBD]

Florida House
- Klasfeld [D-HD90]

Local Races
- [TBD]


Products & Services
If you have a product, drop us a line, and we'll take a look.

(Back to the top, or jump to media posts or blog posts)

Please consider the following products and services:

Stuff made by folks with health insurance, pensions and daily overtime.

..........

Anyone can now make a Living Will and Health Power of Attorney free of charge at www.ItsMyLife.com by using the code TERRI

...........

Retro Campaigns - classic political T-shirts.


The exclusively endorsed website of the AFL-CIO Union Label & Service Trades Department and help millions of workers protect their jobs and ensure the security of their families.


(these are not paid ads, nor do we have any financial stake in any of these entities)

(Back to the top)


Event Calendar
July 2010
(view month)
S M T W R F S
* * * * 01 02 03
04 05 06 07 08 09 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
* * * * * * *
<< (add event) >>

Search




Advanced Search


Site News
As of 7/16/10: An old friend resurfaces as BlogWood 2.0. Please check out the prolific Rantings from Florida and a new site, "Current news updates"

Immediately below, you can donate, follow select candidates on twitter, or check them out on Facebook. These are not paid ads.

Become a FLA Politics fan on FaceBook and/or follow us on Twitter:

Candidates
The campaign web sites of select candidates; click on "FB" to check them out on FaceBook, "T" to follow them on twitter, and "$" to donate. These are not paid ads.

(Contact us for info)

Gov: Alex Sink $
Sen: Kendrick Meek $
Sen: Kevin Burns $
CD7: Heather Beaven $
CD8: Alan Grayson $
CD11: Kathy Castor $
CD2: Al Lawson $
CFO: Loranne Ausley FB T $

(Back to the top or jump to Florida netroots blog posts) or media "blog" posts)

"Special Projects"
- The Charlie Chronicles: Chain Gang Charlie wants to be a U.S. Senator. But how much do people know about Mr. Happy Face?

- "About 'Jeb!'" documents Jebbie Bush's background, and his record in politics and business.

- The outgoing RPOF U.S. Senator thinks he's an ""anti-family", "darling of homosexual extremists". What else don't we know about Billy McCollum?

- At "After All, He Is Black", we look at the inability of Florida "conservatives" to deal with racial issues.

- "Take this job ..." is a compendium of some of the things Florida employers are permitted to do to their employees.

Please leave comments or e-mail us with additional material for these projects.


About Our Feeds
Our collection of RSS feeds includes our selection of continuously updated Florida Netroots posts and Florida newspaper company "blog" posts, as well as a "Crist Watch" feed.

Media "Blog" Posts
"blog" posts by employees of newspaper companies.

(Back to the top or jump to Florida netroots blog posts)

Blogs and Other Links
Links to blogs and other web sites. Please contact us to suggest links

(Back to the top, or jump to media posts or blog posts)

(* denotes "conservatives")
(Link denotes dormancy)

Feed
- RSS Feed

The Original
- Florida Blog

Our Sister Site
- Florida Politics

DFA
- DFA
- Florida DFA
- DFA Florida

Political Action
- Register 5 Democrats
- Florida Fair Elections
- Civic Concern

News Links
- Fort Report
- Sayfie Review*
- Progressive States
- CQ Politics.com
- Current news updates

Progressive Radio
- Florida Progressive Coalition
- American AM
- American AM Blog
- Derek Newton Interview
- Political Buzz Radio
- Political Buzz Radio Blog

Resources
- Florida PIRG
- Consumer Federation
- Office of Economic & Demographic Research
- Labor Market Statistics (FAWI)
- CanditoUSA

Think Tanks
- Money in State Politics
- Progressive States Network
- Economic Policy Institute
- FIU - RISEP
- The Florida Center for Fiscal and Economic Policy
- Collins Center for Public Policy*
- James Madison Institute*
- FIU - CLR&S

Blog Aggregators
- sourstock.com.com
- Spacecoastweb.com
- TampaBLAB
- Lefty Blogs - Florida
- BlogNetNews/Florida

Search FL Blogs

BlogNetNews.com
Party Blogs
- Miami-Dade Dems
- Seminole Democrats
- Grassroots Brevard
- Marion County Dems

Florida Based Blogs

Florida

- Progressive Coalition
- Beach Peanuts
- Crowley Political Report
- Florida Kossacks
- Build Fla's DECs
- The New Argument
- O'Blog
- Bark Bark Woof Woof
- Florida Politics
- Muttering Jam
- South ... Suwannee
- Blast Off!
- Poor Richard's ...
- Pensito Review
- Discourse.net
- The 13th Juror
- Aikane Leo
- Recess Time
- Out in Left Field
- Florida Politix
- Standing the Gaff
- Last Day of My Life
- Political Bloviation
- Floridians for Change
- Truth or Death*
- Leftist Underground
- Nesting Ground
- Grapefruit
- Florida Rants
- Change In Tally
- State of Sunshine*
- Political Buzz
- Librarian
- Peer Review Florida*
- Florida Masochist*
- This From a Broad
- Conniption Fit

West Central

- Interstate4Jamming
- Fried Gator
- Putnam Report
- Saint Petersblog
- Sticks of Fire
- Seminole Heights
- Empirical Polk
- Because Everyone ...
- In Theory
- Ybor City Stogie
- FL-09 Blog
- TampaBay Democrat Blue
- Campaign Manager

Central

- Talk to Me
- What's Wrong ...
- SpaceCoastWeb
- Seminole Dems
- Space Coast Rising
- Grassroots Brevard
- CentralFloridaDiscuss

North

- Alachua Politix
- Political Indigestion*
- The Gainesville Report
- Leon Young Dems
- Pensacola Beach Blog
- JaxGOP*
- Swamp Pundette
- Truman's Conscience
- Levy County Liberal
- Politically Homeless
- Pensacola Voter
- Ricksblog.biz
- Tallahassee Sentinel*

South

- Palm Beach Prog Dems
- Miami-Dade Dems
- Generation Miami
- Blue in Miami
- Boca Raton Examiner
- The New Argument
- S. Fla. Daily Blog
- BlueBroward Blog
- BlueBroward
- Broward's Blog
- Somewhere on A1A
- Critical Miami
- Stuck on the Palmetto
- Eye on Miami
- Herald Watch
- The Daily Pulp
- Surfside

Southwest

- Old World Wolf
- Behind the Curtains?

Elected Officials

- Pensacola: Sam Hall

Media/Reporter "Blogs"

- Post on Politics
- PBP's The Forum
- Political Insider
- The Position Page
- March on Politics
- The Buzz
- Naked Politics
- Infomaniac
- Political Whore
- Q Blog
- S.V.Date's OmegaBlog
- Political Safari
- ReidBlog
- Scott Maxwell
- Candide's Notebooks
- Political Pulse

General

- A Grand Illusion
- Progressive Junction
- No Hair News f/k/a Anger Management
- Johnny Carbon
- Hatless.com
- T Rex
- Progressive Gold
- Checks & Balances
- The Spencerian
- IndependentReport
- Pushing Rope
- UTI
- Review American ...
- Boiling Mad
- Can of Worms
- Litbrit f/k/a The Last Duchess
- Stupid Enough
- Peer Review*
- Shadow f/k/a Counter Point
- Be-Think
- Smashed Frog
- Mighty Quare f/k/a Bitch Lab
- Conceptual Guerilla
- Roblimo.com
- The Florida Masochist
- In Theory
- Doomed Generation
- Anarchy in the AM

Specialized

- My Florida River
- South Florida Lawyers
- Property Tax in Florida
- Ranger against War
- Swing State Project
- Class Bias in Higher Ed
- Alan Farago
- Florida Election Law
- ActBlue Blog
- Fla Workforce Housing
- Fla Public Policy
- My Florida History
- Blog De Leon
- Abstract Appeal
- FCAR SpeakOut
- Reforming Fla's DECs
- How Shall We Grow
- The Thicket
- Terri PAC
- Sun State Activist
- Alcee Hastings
- becoming change

Other Florida Blogs
- Frappr!

Beyond Florida
-Local Texans

Not Just Politics
- uVu [South Fla]

Other Blogs
- Dean Velvel
- Empires Fall
- Culture Kitchen
- Political Gastronomica
- Prog. States Blog

Southern Sites
- Better South
- Think South
- Facing South
- Blue Sunbelt

Resources
- Dem Youth Strategy
- Fla Common Cause
- Run for Office
- Florida Voter File Project
- FCAT Reform
- OUR Congress - Fla

Other SoapBlox
- SoapBlox

Polling
(Back to the top)


Polling Sites
- Pollster.com
- Political Arithmetik
- TPM Election Central
- Real Clear Politics
- Cook Political Report
- Twenty Questions

Pollsters
- ABC News
- AP-IPSOS
- CBS News
- Democracy Corps
- Diageo/Hotline
- Economist/YouGov
- GWU/Battleground
- Gallup
- Harris Interactive
- IBD/TIPP
- ICR
- LA Times
- Marist
- NBC/WSJ
- New York Times
- Pew Research Center
- Quinnipiac
- Rasmussen
- Survey USA
- Time/SRBI
- Washington Post
- Zogby International

Editorials
(Back to the top)


- News-Journal
- Times-Union
- Florida Today
- News-Press
- GainesvilleSun
- Miami Herald
- Orlando Sentinel
- Palm Beach Post
- Pensacola News Journal
- Sarasota Herald-Tribune
- St. Pete Times
- Sun-Sentinel
- Tampa Tribune
- Tallahassee Democrat

Columnists
(Back to the top)


- Blumner
- Bousquet
- Cotterell
- Engelhardt
- Hiaasen
- Deslatte
- Littlepage
- Maxwell
- Mayo
- Otto
- Reinhard Ricker
- Ruth
- Schultz
- Smith
- Thomas
- Troxler
- Wallace

Diversions

(Back to the top)


- Arts & Letters Daily
- Economic Policy Inst.
- Grammar Slammer
- Lifehacker
- London Rev. of Books
- NY Rev. of Books
- Online Slang Dictionary
- Krugman
- The Nation
- The American Prospect






Crist Watch
Most everything on the 'net about Charlie Crist.

(Back to the top, or jump to media posts or blog posts)

Powered by: SoapBlox