1. Short election cycle. We didn't have the time to do many of the things we wanted to do that might have helped GOTV, raise money or get endorsements.
2. Lack of money. Even those things we could've done, we couldn't afford.
3. Lack of outside support. The state party, local DECs and allied interest groups gave little support. Much of this was in the name of neutrality -- not wanting to take sides in the primary -- but you didn't see this kind of neutrality in the Republican primary, where the moneyed interests helped out both candidates.
4. Demographic disadvantage. This is the key factor, since 1-3 also applied to our opponent, Suzan Franks. We might have been able to overcome the demogaphics if we had spent more money or had time to work out better stragies (to be fair, this might've benefitted Franks as well) or if we had gotten outside help.
Franks, though, was from Citrus County, which has over 76,000 voters in this District, compared to the 22,000 in Leon County, where we're from. Leon County has a higher percentage of Democratic voters, but turnout was significantly lower, particularly in the Democratic primary. Citrus turnout was nearly three times the number of voters in the primary than Leon. Add in the fact that Marion county, which had second-largest group of voters, is next door to Citrus, giving Franks a significant advantage.
On the day of the election, Citrus and Marion had great weather, while Leon County had off-and-on severe weather, including tornadoes. Citrus and Marion counties had other races going on to raise awareness of the election and larger portions of their counties involved in the election, another factor in raising awareness. The numbers back this up -- Franks beat us by 2815 votes. In Citrus and Marion, she beat us by 2446 votes. We only gained back 296 in Leon.
Franks also did better than us in most of the small counties. Oddly enough, I think this might have been an accidental benefit gained from an attack ad from the Republican Party of Florida. The ad, meant to hurt Franks in the general election, probably raised her awareness and name recognition amongst Democratic primary voters.
The problem for Franks -- and make no mistake, I want her to defeat Charlie Dean (I have no sour grapes) -- is that these things that were strengths for her in the primary will be weaknesses in the general election. Citrus county was strong for her in the primary -- but Charlie Dean is also from Citrus and has a much higher profile. Marion county was a strong for her as well -- but the Republican turnout, as in Citrus, was much higher and the portion of Marion in SD3 is overwhelmingly Republican. Obviously, Republican mailers aren't going to help in the general. While Franks and Ravenscraft were approximately working with the same amount of money, Dean is going to have a lot more.
So does this mean Franks is going to lose? Not necessarily. This is still a plurality Democratic district. Here's what Franks needs to win:
1. She needs to hold her own in Citrus County. Dean will win Citrus, but Franks needs to get a lot of votes from her home territory to help neutralize the advantage.
2. She needs a lot more money. She doesn't have to (and probably can't) outspend Dean, but she does have to be competitive. This means that voters (inside and outside the district) have to step up and start writing some checks. Quickly.
3. She needs help from the party. The state party seems to think that this race is unwinnable. That may be a sign that they prefer to be in the minority. If you can't win in a district where you have a registration advantage, when can you win? FDP and the DECs need to step up and deliver with money, in-kind assistance, GOTV efforts, phone banks, etc. And this isn't limited to counties in the District, others can help out, too. Whether you are in SD3 or not, you need more Democrats in the legislature.
4. She needs help from the interest groups. These groups were largely silent in the primary. They need to step up with money and endorsements ASAP.
5. GOTV is key. The math is simple. If we even match the Republican percentage of voters that turn out to vote, we win the election. We can even have a lower turnout rate than Republicans and still win it. But we have to greatly step up over the primary.
6. Media presence is key. The average voter in the district has never heard of Franks. A lot of them have never heard of Dean, either. Rest assured, they'll hear about Dean over the next few weeks. Will they hear of Franks?
7. Franks needs help from the Netroots. We can play a significant role in winning this race. We need to get to know Franks better. We need to play up her positive aspects. We need to get to know Dean better. We need to play up his negative aspects -- and there appear to be a lot of them. We need to talk about the race and get the conversation going and sustain it. Many voters, before they go vote, will use the web to assist in their decision in this race. We need to provide them with the information that will make their decision easier. Search for Suzan Franks now, and much of what will show up at the top of the rankings will be from the Florida Netroots. We need to make sure that is true of Dean as well.
This race is winnable and is a significant step we can take in order to Blog Florida Blue. |
